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South china morning post
China’s economic expectations have been turned upside down by the coronavirus
In late 2019, the economic debate in China revolved around whether the country should aim for 6 percent growth in the following year – a conversation quickly turned on its head by the coronavirus. The situation steadily deteriorated, first in China and then around the world, growth projections were lowered as the death toll rose. A review of these increasingly pessimistic projections shows how quickly assumptions have been turned on their heads by a disease that has now infected more than 84 million people and killed over 1.8 million people. Get the latest insight and analysis from our Global Impact newsletter on the big stories originating in China. In October 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that the global economy would grow 3.4 percent in 2020, up from 3 percent the previous year, while the Chinese economy would grow 5.8 percent. In the meantime, the World Bank predicted growth of 5.9 percent in China. At the time, these projections were a cause for concern in some Chinese political circles. All eyes were on Beijing to see if the Chinese Communist Party would be able to deliver on a commitment made in 2012: to double the size of the economy for over a decade by the end of 2020. Wuhan is now rocking the coronavirus dark days There has also been some debate over whether the country should aim for 6 percent growth to prevent a slowdown, or whether it was an unnecessary and unrealistic goal. But then a mysterious “viral pneumonia” was found in Wuhan. Only 27 infections had been officially recorded at the end of December, and officials said no person-to-person infections had been detected. By January 7, it had been identified as a member of the coronavirus family, and two weeks later it was confirmed that it could be. Meanwhile, the IMF had revised its growth forecasts, forecasting 3.3 percent growth in the world economy and the Chinese Number raised 0.2 points to 6 percent after Beijing signed a first-phase trade deal with the U.S. That same month, the World Bank confirmed its forecast that China would grow 5.9 percent. However, the coronavirus, as the new disease would become known, was already spreading rapidly and causing the economy to come to a head. In the coming weeks, the provinces of Wuhan and Hubei were strictly closed, followed by most of the other Chinese cities. On March 5, when the disease spread around the world and most Chinese factories had ceased production, IMF executive director Kristalina Georgieva said the World Health Organization did not declare the coronavirus a global pandemic until March 11 than more than 118,000 cases have been reported in over 110 countries. The agency was widely criticized at the time for acting too slowly to gather the world’s resources to fight the virus. Have half a million people in Wuhan contracted the coronavirus? On March 31, the World Bank announced that the outbreak would slash China’s growth to 2.3 percent at best, but at worst to the country’s growth rate in mid-April, just three months after January’s buoyant forecasts the world saw remembered her worst economic recession. On April 14, the IMF said the global economy would expect it to shrink 3 percent in 2020. China, where production resumed after the peak of the outbreak in the first quarter, should continue to see positive growth – but that number has been cut to 1.2 percent, but the IMF and World Bank predict that China’s economy will grow 1 percent in 2020 will grow. Meanwhile, however, the World Bank expects the global economy to decline by 5.2 percent in 2020, the deepest recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s, and the IMF said that growth would shrink by 4.9 percent. However, the Chinese economy recovered in the second half of the year, after having contracted only 1.6 percent in the first half compared to the same period last year. By September The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development forecast that this will be the only group of 20 countries to see positive growth for the year. That forecast was confirmed by the IMF, which in October forecast China would grow 1.9 percent. The highs and lows of a 12-month coronavirus for China’s economy The country grew 4.9 percent in the third quarter and the fourth quarter is widely expected to be higher. Other positive signs were the year-over-year increase in exports in November 21.1 percent – the largest dollar sales in history – as the rest of the world turned to Chinese factories to produce the goods they don’t could. In the US, the economy expanded at an annualized 33.4 percent in the third quarter, fueled by more than $ 3 trillion in economic relief from the government after a record slump of 31.4 percent in the second quarter. Economists expect an annualized growth rate of 3.5 percent for the fourth quarter, but the US economy is still expected, according to the latest forecast by the IMF, the center is expected to shrink a total of 4.3 percent in 2020. Because of these contrasting recoveries, the Center for Economic and Business Research now expects China to become the world’s largest economy in 2028, five years earlier than predicted. More from the South China Morning Post: * China’s economy could grow 9 percent in 2021, helping to overtake the US sooner * Xi Jinping praises China’s post-economic growth of the coronavirus in the New Year’s message Coronavirus turbulent 12 months * China discovers first case of new coronavirus variant in the UK * China’s success with coronavirus builds confidence that its system is the best answer to the country’s challenges This article China’s economic expectations impacted by the coronavirus Upside down, first appeared in the South China Morning Post. For the latest news from the South China Morning Post, download our mobile app. Copyright 2021.